ANALYSIS: What the Second Byelection Loss Means for the Liberals

Speculation about the future of the Liberal Party has intensified after its loss of another stronghold in a close byelection, this time in the Quebec riding of LaSalle-Émard-Verdun.
According to Nik Nanos, chief data scientist and founder of Nanos Research, the recent byelection loss is a “crushing blow” for the Liberal party.
Nanos said Quebec is still “critical for the Liberals” and the recent byelection results show that the next election could be “completely ugly for them.” The results show Quebecers are disappointed with the Liberals, he said, while the Bloc is seen as a “significant and viable alternative for voters.”
Tim Powers, chair of public affairs consulting firm Summa Strategies, said the Liberal Party has been unable to increase its polling numbers anywhere in Canada for several months.
Nanos said the latest loss makes Trudeau’s leadership “more and more untenable and difficult with a setback like that, because it shows that there’s not a lot of political coattails for him personally at this particular point in time.”
Nelson Wiseman, professor emeritus of political science at the University of Toronto, said it’s possible Trudeau has already decided to step down at some point, but that he’s waiting for the right timing.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if Trudeau has decided. And I think the question is, ‘When can he do it and not hurt the party?’” Wiseman said.
“The big thing is to make sure that Canadians understand that the choice they get to make in the next election, about the kind of country we are, really matters, and that’s the work we’re going to continue to do,” he said.